Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Both composes two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
